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<h1 class="post-title">Two Fundamental Demands of Human Beings
</h1>
<div class="post-meta">
<span class="post-time">
2018-12-23
</span><span class="post-category">
<a href="/categories/thoughts/">thoughts</a>
</span>
</div>
</header>
<div class="post-toc" id="post-toc">
<h2 class="post-toc-title">Contents</h2>
<div class="post-toc-content">
<ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#历史缘由"><span class="toc-text">历史缘由</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#理论验证"><span class="toc-text">理论验证</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#理论预测"><span class="toc-text">理论预测</span></a></li></ol>
</div>
</div><div class="post-content"><p>人类的需求可以总结为两类，创造需求的需求，与解决需求的需求。</p>
<a id="more"></a>
<h2 id="历史缘由"><a href="#历史缘由" class="headerlink" title="历史缘由"></a>历史缘由</h2><p>在过去的几亿年中，由于生存资源的稀缺，自然界不断通过“物竞天择，适者生存”的法则筛选物种。这使得“一切为了生存”成为了几乎所有物种的“目标函数”。在众多存活下来的物种中，只有人类创造并有效利用了语言这一工具。语言使得人类能够进行更加复杂的推理思维（想象）以及更加有效的个体间信息交流。得益于语言，人类机智地通过预测潜在的自然选择要求提前准备必要的生存资源并建立了协调资源创造（分工）与资源分配的有效体制（市场，贸易）。不可避免地，基于“一切为了生存”这一习惯以及想象与预测这一种能力，人类形成了自主创造需求以及解决需求的行为模式，由此产生了两种基本行为动机，即创造需求的需求与解决需求的需求。</p>
<h2 id="理论验证"><a href="#理论验证" class="headerlink" title="理论验证"></a>理论验证</h2><p>观察现有人类社会架构，无论社会群体形态是政府，社会组织还是企业（公司），其本质都是一个协调不同人类创造需求的需求与解决需求的需求的闭环生态中的一环。如果一个政府，社会组织或企业无法再继续充当好一个协调人类需求中的闭环生态的一个环节，它将迅速的被其它能更高效发挥其角色的同类或非同类社会群体替代掉。</p>
<p>马云是一位伟大的企业家与战略家，他一手缔造的淘宝电商平台与移动快捷支付使得人们创造需求的需求与解决需求的需求的协调变得更加高效。这使阿里巴巴获得了极大的群众的信任，表现出来就是阿里具备的极高的资源支配权，也就是其极高的市值。</p>
<h2 id="理论预测"><a href="#理论预测" class="headerlink" title="理论预测"></a>理论预测</h2><p>当人类内部的资源因为某种原因（生产或流通环节出问题）不足以支持所有人的生存时，多余出的人类数量总会以某种形式被抹掉，也就是著名的马尔萨斯陷阱。当一个国家或民族自身遭遇马尔萨斯陷阱时，它总会选择向外发动战争来解决。因为既然要抹掉的人口数量是相对固定的，那么如果向外发动战争就会有更多的本族或本国人能够活下来，只是要将部分的死亡转移至外邦人口。古时的匈奴，二战的德国和日本都是非常典型的例子。</p>
<p>观察历史上的战争，有两次规模很大，我们称之为第一，二次世界大战。第一次世界大战是由于大批量机器取代人力，使得大量原有人力劳动力需要转移。但是劳动力太多没办法短时间转移，表现出来就是失业率飞涨，太多的人无所事事，没有收入，难以生存。为了防止这部分劳动力失控闹事，只得转移其注意力向外发动战争。这就是协调人创造需求的需求与满足需求的需求的市场体制出问题所导致的资源流通停滞所导致的。二战亦是如此，当电力驱动将以往的蒸汽驱动取代，大量劳动力亟需转型。1933年美国率先出现此类问题，罗斯福政府因为有多年发展积累下来的资本，因此可以通过新政建设大量民用设置强行修正资源流通生态链。但是刚因为一战被洗劫一空的德国和国土狭小资源稀缺的日本就没这么幸运了，只得将自身不可避免的马尔萨斯陷阱向犹太人和东亚转移。</p>
<p>如今计算技术充分发展，出现了可以通过建立多项式来fit自然复杂函数（自然规律）的人工智能算法。这就使得大多数非创造型的脑力劳动具备被取代的趋势。那么，这部分原脑力劳动力将何去何从？尤其是在中国和印度这种人口大国，一旦劳动力转型过渡不好，产生的马尔萨斯陷阱代价都将是巨大的，并最终总会由全球承担。</p>
<p>我的想法是，得益于数字技术的发展，如果如今的我们能够创造出一个能够协调人们创造需求的需求与解决需求的需求的闭环生态系统呢？如果当脑力劳动力被替代时这些原有劳动力能够迅速进入并适应我们创立好的闭环生态系统呢？也许我们便能够避开可怕的马尔萨斯陷阱了。</p>
<p>经过几千年文明的发展，当代人类已经不再满足于单单解决自然界所需要的要求，而开始尝试并创造一些非常炫酷有意思但并不怎么有利于生存的需求。也就是说，我们并不在需要所有的人类都要努力工作来确保人类能够生存，我们可以空余出好大一部分人类来探索一些新的有意思的领域。</p>
<p>一个可能的想法是，沉浸型网络游戏。这种网络游戏不同于现有的大部分网络游戏。现有的游戏的商业模式大都是通过程序上限制用户的部分功能体验，只用交了钱的用户才能够使用这些功能。但是我所设想的游戏更像一个平台，玩家可以从中提出自己创造的（游戏中的）需求也可以解决其他人的需求（即交易）。这就意味着一个游戏中可以出现虚拟货币，并且游戏的公众认可度会通过游戏货币与现实货币的汇率得以体现。游戏的开发者将通过开源社区而非企业进行开发，这就意味着开发者与游戏一定程度上非利益相关，从而确保了游戏的纯洁与高效，使之可能具备成为社会基础架构形式的潜能。</p>
<p>游戏的低门槛性并且游戏符合脑力工作者的思维习惯，使脑力劳动力能够比较轻易的从原有职业转移至相应的沉浸式游戏中。并且，由于是虚拟化技术，游戏有充分的弹性容纳大量新增的人们。不同与现在，届时社会舆论与社会思维也将会掀起一股以转入游戏为荣的热潮，以规避危害更大的战争。</p>
<p>有点类似于编程中的函数封装观点，现实社会类似于main函数，各个浸入式网络游戏类似于子函数。现在的社会就像是一个只有main函数的程序，所有的功能都在main函数中实现。这就使得当程序功能越复杂，越有可能发生各种bug，表现出来就是冲突甚至战争。而未来的社会更像是包含好多子函数（沉浸式游戏）的main函数。各个函数都是相互独立而又相互依赖的，每个游戏可以协调好自己的闭环生态，同时又与main函数发生部分交互。这样的社会架构将会变的去中心化并且看上去更加稳定与高效。</p>
<hr>
<p>注：部分想法启发自<a href="https://www.zhihu.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">知乎</a></p>
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