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| title | titleEN | date | categories | tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 中美贸易战-解 | Sino-US trade war-solution | 2019-05-12 | [thoughts] | [war] |
{% raw %}{% endraw %} 中美贸易战的解不在美国，而是在我们自己身上。
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{% raw %}{% endraw %} The solution to the Sino-US trade war is not in the United States, but in ourselves. {% raw %}{% endraw %}
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关于谈判，党内争议比较大，但最终很有可能会拒绝做出让步。 当美关税抬升，国内相关产业链将大批转移至台湾及东南亚国家，累计将造成1亿人口的就业问题。与前几次的危机不同，这一次我们不但要提防房市泡沫的激化，也没有那麽多的基建可提供就业。从另一方面看，近几年来，中国的产能过剩问题主要通过出口得以解决，拿着贸易顺差来发展国内经济，以实现不可思议的经济增长。如今特朗普政府征加关税，将使得这一策略不再行得通。
如果在谈判中妥协，中方将丧失好不容易占来的第四次工业革命先机，并经济将会想日本，韩国一样任人摆布。
我认为，在不妥协的前提下，中共有三个破局之法。
- 武统台湾 这个需要看明年台湾大选，是否能找到正当的武统理由。但的确有助于缓解国内社会焦点问题。
- 房市改革 可能性极大，把泡沫危机转变成创造就业机会的资本。
- 游戏 将社会上的过剩劳动力转移进游戏产业空转，以缓解社会矛盾的形成。
为了缓解失业冲击的强度，央行将通过印人民币使人民币贬值来增进出口，吸引他国来补充美资撤离的空缺。
以上。。
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{% raw %}{% endraw %} Regarding negotiations, there are relatively large disputes within the party, but in the end it is very likely that they will refuse to make concessions. When U.S. tariffs rise, related domestic industrial chains will be transferred to Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries in large numbers, which will cause employment problems for 100 million people. Unlike previous crises, this time we not only have to guard against the intensification of the housing market bubble, but also there is not so much infrastructure that can provide employment. On the other hand, in recent years, China's overcapacity problem has been solved mainly through exports, and the trade surplus is used to develop the domestic economy in order to achieve incredible economic growth. Now that the Trump administration imposes tariffs, this strategy will no longer work.
If it compromises in the negotiation, China will lose the opportunity of the Fourth Industrial Revolution that it finally took over, and its economy will be at the mercy of Japan and South Korea.
I think that under the premise of no compromise, there are three ways to break the game.
- Wu Tong Taiwan This depends on whether Taiwan’s general election next year can find a legitimate reason for military reunification. But it does help alleviate domestic social focus issues.
- Housing market reform It is very possible to turn the bubble crisis into capital for job creation.
- Games Transfer the surplus labor force in the society into the game industry to ease the formation of social conflicts.
In order to alleviate the intensity of the unemployment shock, the central bank will increase imports and exports by printing the renminbi to depreciate the renminbi, attracting other countries to supplement the vacancy of the withdrawal of US capital.
the above. .
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